Better politicians, fewer deaths? Local resilience in overcoming the pandemic crisis in Italy

The paper investigates how the quality of local institutions shaped the ability of Italian communities to withstand and recover from the COVID-19 pandemic, drawing on monthly mortality data spanning two decades and covering 583 Local Labour Market Areas across the entire national territory.

The study shows that, among all institutional dimensions examined, the quality of local politicians, measured through their education level, professional background, and gender balance, is the single most significant factor explaining differences in mortality outcomes during the recovery phase. Bureaucratic efficiency and financial sustainability, by contrast, do not emerge as statistically relevant drivers in the context of the pandemic crisis. These results highlight that resilience is not solely determined by structural or economic conditions, but is deeply shaped by the human capital of those in charge of local governance. Areas led by more competent administrators were consistently better equipped to absorb the shock and guide their communities back to normality.

By introducing the first counterfactual-based resilience index at the local level in Italy, this study contributes to the broader debate on institutional quality and crisis management, and offers actionable evidence for policymakers seeking to build more resilient communities ahead of future shocks.